Gumii Paarlaamaa Oromoo (GPO)
Oromo Parliamentarians Council (OPC)
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Where is the ODF these days?
Few weeks ago, I wrote about the standoff between the ODF, the
Amhara groups, the OPDO and the TPLF. Since then a lot has happened.
Though many people had been unprecedentedly cynical about obbo
Lenco's return to Oromia, the man had been in Finfinnee for five
days and left the country after talking to TPLF's prime minister.
According to the news from Finfinnee, the OPDO refused to talk to
him even though abba Duulaa has come to
As I stated in my last writing, the Amhara political groups
overwhelmingly view ODF's return to Finfinnee as something that must
not simply be accepted, because they the return of the ODF will
bring the Oromo cause to the light once again. On the other hand,
the OPDO members resent ODF's return to protect their power. When it
comes to the Tigrains, the TPLF conservatives think that they should
not share the power that they have earned via their sheer struggle
and made themselves and the Tigreans the superior tribe of empire
The wing knows that the Oromias and the southern people are not
disciplined to use their state budget and are poorer economically
and organizationally compared to Tigrai. Fact shows that the Tigrai
region that has been comparable to Asalla before 1991 is now better
than Finfinnee. This, they argue makes it so clear to the western
embassies in Finfinnee and recognize Tigrai as a hidden capital city
As to the Amharas, they rarely pay attention to their corrupt
prospectives and they careless about democracy, development and
fairness. They rather believe that hiding the Oromo cause by simply
ignoring it will work for them just like in the past. However, they
don't know how to remove the TPLF from power since they are trapped
between their desire to protect their Amhara identity and wealth in
Oromia, on one hand, and their overwhelmingly conservative view that
From the ODF front, the group has taken advantage of the current
anti Minilik sentiment and attracted few individuals from minority
ethnic groups whom they are allowing to talk on their anti Minilik
Pal-talk network. Though the Paltalk membership have gone down from
a 1000 to 500 over two weeks time, the situation seem to steal a
momentum from the paltalk based OLF members. Looking at the way the
ODF cadres operate on Pal talk, they seem to be much more
disciplined than the Amhara paltalk groups.
The truth about the future
But those obstacles notwithstanding, the fact that the TPLF controls intelligence, military and the economy suggest that the Amhara political chant and the ODF's dream that the state department of America will eventually force the TPLF to open up a venue for democratic process underestimates the level of American lobbyists power to corrupt all those involved in the political process at global stage. This is to say that ignoring Tigreans willingness to sell the entire empire in exchange to stay in power is the same as ignoring the fact that the sun rise in east. In short, the TPLF will not step down for the following reasons.
1. The TPLF team is not ready to step down because there is no military or political pressure that it fears. It is only the OLF and the Ogadenia Liberation Fronts that are fighting the TPLF right now and they have barely dented it's military power
2. There are no political obstacles that the TPLF faces except the overt prejudice the Tigreans use to face in Finfinnee but that is not there now. In fact, the Tigreans feel that they are the most powerful people in empire Ethiopia and they feel that a significant number of voters already accept them thanks to the micro financing they have provided to the majority hooligan class of the Finfinnee city dwellers.
3. There are a huge barrier that the TPLF can cite about the Amharas to attract the Oromo and other minority groups attention and vote
4. Ever since the TPLF came to power in 1991, the only force that challenged it was the OLF, and now the TPLF has successfully divided the OLF into the Lenco, the Lichoo, the Galchu and many other groups
5. Polarization;. The major obstacle to Oromo and the Amharas is the Amharas fear and hatred toward the Oromo people and Oromos relentless struggle to brake the Amhara racism.
6. Another polarizing factor is TPLF's gift of free land to the diaspora who rushed home and started building homes by evicting the Oromo people from Finfinnee's surrounding areas. By doing so, the TPLF confused many individuals not to know wether to love or to hate the TPLF. These opportunist individuals who took free land from the Oromo people seem to be neutral because they have generated feelings on all sides and are ambivalent. This gives the TPLF a sense that they have strong base of support.
4. The democratic process; The logic of election validates TPLF's arguments that other organizations do not have a good vision for the country. This has been challenging for Dr. Marara and obbo Bulcha's party and that was true for all the Amhara party, including Qinijit. This makes it difficult for the ODF or for other groups to win against the TPLF even if they participate in the election process.
5. The ODF leaders and members background as the OLF leaders will be
a huge reason for the Amharas not to vote for the ODF and the same
thing is true for the Gurage, the Kambata and the Walyita groups who
have strong anti-Oromo sentiments.
7. The Religious groups whose sentiments matches the intensity to have a monopoly on values and morality of the empire at large will be afraid to vote for certain group such as the ODF giving a whole spectrum of reasons regardless of Hasan Husen and the like false impression of religiosity.
With many questions surrounding the ODF from every corner, I do not see any overriding reason why the TPLF has to step down from power or even allow any opposition to take it's power. For that reason, the TPLF will not show a desire to leave Minilik's palace, lose it's investments in Oromia and return to Tigrai. The only way the TPLF could have been isolated was if the Amharas are able to overcome their racist views against the Oromo people. As it stands now, both the Oromo and the Amhara are happy to have a strong TPLF in the middle because both groups have the memories of the killer and the killed against each other.
Most importantly, the Amharas lack a knowledge of democracy and
civility, and wish to take their empire back into the deep darkness
of Minilik era once again. Interestingly, "
For the rest,
All these things considered, it is clear that who will be the
winner. Like the Muslims who felt it was time to regroup and replace
the Orthodox church but lost, the Amhara ultra nationalists have
tried to take over the power but they failed time and again. That
means they are not going to try the 2005 means of struggle this time
around. They rather will be well organized and continue to challenge
the TPLF to accept them as equal partners and guard their business
interests and help their Amhara identity to flourish for centuries
to come. Though helping Amharic and the Amhara identity to grow is
not their top priority, the TPLF and the OPDO have no choice but
promote Amharic and whatever comes with it. That means, the two
cousins mutual identity will continue to run in all directions
across the empire only to ignite the ultra Amharas confidence and
help them remain influential in the history of empire
Because of the above reasons, both the Amharas, the OPDO and the
TPLF will simply refuse to allow the ODF, if not by saying "NO" but
by finding reasons. The reasons may range from accusing the ODF
members and leadership with the Badano and Arbaa Guguguu mass
killing to the delaying of the process. One way of crippling ODF's
ambition of participating in the election process is by simply
delaying the implementation of the negotiated term, whatever obbo
Lonco had negotiated with Malasa when he was alive.
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